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What will happen to EV prices after Zimbabwe bans raw minerals exports, a move that cuts off roughly 15% of China’s lithium imports?

Zimbabwe exported 1.204 million tons of lithium concentrates to China in 2025, which was roughly 12% of global lithium supply and 15.5% of China’s total imports.

The Short-Term Shock

This immediate ban from the 4th-largest lithium concentrate exporter to China pushed the price of Lithium Carbonate up to 173,800 CNY per tonne.

Zimbabwe’s official statement said the ban, which was imposed on all mineral exports, would remain in place until further notice. Furthermore, the immediate ban, which was previously expected to come into effect in 2027, is aimed at realigning export processes due to growing concerns about ‘continued malpractices’ in mineral exports.

How the Zimbabwe Bans Raw Minerals Exports Policy Aims to Break the Mid-Income Trap

Zimbabwe lithium ban is an attempt to escape the middle power trap, but the leverage logic depends entirely on whether the counterparty can route around. Analysts believe the lithium ban is intended to pressure foreign mining companies to expedite the process of establishing lithium processing refineries in Zimbabwe.

The Chinese companies, including Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, Sinomine, Chengxin Lithium Group, and Yahua, have major investments in Zimbabwe’s mining sector.

Chinese battery metal firms have invested over $1.4 billion in Zimbabwean lithium assets since 2021, helping consolidate China’s dominance of the battery metal ⁠supply chain.”

China’s dominance of Zimbabwe lithium assets is one front in the same great power economic competition that is simultaneously reshaping shipping corridors, energy infrastructure, and technology supply chains across the globe.

What Will Happen to EV Prices?

The cost of the cell in an EV is not more than 40 percent of the production cost, and the supply chain disruption of nearly 15% of the raw material doesn’t immediately hike the unit price of a finished Electric Vehicle.

China’s lithium refineries have stockpiled raw materials by mid-April 2026, and if Zimbabwe holds the ban beyond April, the ripple effects will be visible in the supply chain.

However, it will not necessarily trigger an immediate hike in Electric Vehicle sticker prices, but the market dynamics will likely change if the ban extends beyond April.

Then, Chinese refiners would have no option but to increase the export volume of lithium concentrates from Australia, Brazil, and other countries to maintain raw material supply.

If the ban remains beyond April, the profit margins of Chinese companies and global automakers will shrink, but consumers are unlikely to face significant EV price increases in the short term.

Why Domestic Lithium Processing in Zimbabwe Will Directly Impact EV Prices?

Zimbabwe lithium mandate is restricted to processing it locally and converting it into higher-value products (like lithium sulfate), which directly impacts global EV prices.

Following the lithium exports ban is intented to put pressure on foreign mining companies for establishing lithium processing refineries in Zimbabwe, it initially dragged battery prices up for short period, while in the long run; it will change the dynamics of the EV supply chain in Africa as Zimbabwe holds some of the largest hard-rock lithium reserves in Africa and is a critical supplier for international, largely Chinese, battery and cathode manufacturers.

Read more analysis in our Middle Power Trap section.