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The IT sector witnessed a volatile week as all three big tech giants – Apple, NVIDIA, and Microsoft traded below their respective 200-day simple moving averages, following export control uncertainty in China, reassessment of Big Tech’s partnerships, and geopolitical tensions.
📌 Executive Brief
- Apple ($252) is oversold but technically in a deadlock. Key support is $247 (SMA 200). Watch for WWDC in June — a strong AI reveal could push toward $298. No trade signal yet.
- NVIDIA (~$183) is down 6.86% YTD but still in a correction-within-uptrend structure. Oversold indicators suggest a bounce to $190–$200 is possible. Main risk: export control headlines. Critical floor is $162.
- Microsoft ($384) is the most damaged, down 19% YTD with a confirmed bearish structural shift. The $50B Amazon-OpenAI deal has clouded its AI narrative. $378 (SMA 200) is make-or-break; a close below opens the door to $360 and potentially $340.
As a result, the Nasdaq observed a steady selling pressure before a modest late-week stabilization.
Apple, currently trading at $252.38, showed a long-term uptrend – HH-BOS-HL pattern intact since 2021. In 2025-26, price formed an Equal High near $260 after rejecting the premium zone near $280–$300. Price has since pulled back -7.3% YTD, now hovering right above critical support at the SMA 200 ($247).
Apple Weekly Analysis
AAPL’s Technicals are mixed – every short-to-medium MA (10 through 200 EMA) shows a sell signal — price is below all of them. However, several oscillators (Stochastic at 16, Williams %R at -80) are in deeply oversold territory, which historically leads to bounces. The weekly summary is exactly split: 9 sell, 11 buy — a deadlock, pinning the stock in a wait-and-see posture ahead of Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) to be held in the second week of June.
AAPL’s fundamentals look solid: China iPhone sales reported a 23% surge in the latest cycle, aggressive buybacks, and analysts’ forecast of $298.77, implying a 19% upside from the current price.
The upcoming WWDC is the next major catalyst — a strong AI announcement could trigger a bull trend toward the analysts’ forecast of $298. The key level to watch on the downside is $247 (SMA 200) — a clean close below that opens the door to $220–$235. No active trade signal currently. Watch for a confirmed reversal candle above $260 for bull entry, or a break below $247 as a warning sign.
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NVIDIA Weekly Analysis
NVIDIA, which had shown +245% growth in 2023 and +178% in 2024, started 2026 with a negative 6.86%, failing to sustain above $220.
Both the Stochastic (18.61) and Williams %R (-77.16) are in deeply oversold territory, while MAs (10–30 day) are all above price, showing bearish short-term pressure but 50, 100, and 200-day MAs are all below price, reflecting a bullish structural context, which is a classic correction-within-uptrend setup, not a breakdown.
News related to chip smuggling, export controls, and TSMC limits may represent the primary structural risk that could cap the next rally or delay it.
The oversold trajectory suggests a short-term bounce toward $190–$200 is possible, and a sustained break above $195–$200 would push toward $240+. However, the $162 classic pivot is also a critical base; if it loses, then $140 becomes the next test.
Microsoft Weekly Analysis
MSFT, currently trading at $384, has witnessed a 19.02% negative, the worst YTD decline since 2022, despite showing 56.96%, 16% and 15.54% growth in 2023, 2024 and 2025, respectively.
Contrary to AAPL and NVDA, which showed neutral signals, MSFT has firmly confirmed sell territory, showing 14 sell and only 5 buy signals on the weekly chart, displaying a clean Change of Character (CHoCH) at the top near $570, indicating a structural bearish shift, not just a pullback.
The $50B Amazon-OpenAI deal has raised serious questions about MSFT’s exclusive partnership with OpenAI, as Microsoft is considering legal action, adding more uncertainty and concerns.
The SMA 200 at $378 is the line in the sand. Price is right at this level. A weekly close below $378 turns the chart decisively more bearish and opens $360 (S1 classic) as the next stop, then potentially $340.
Although MSFT’s 19% YTD drawdown is much deeper and its structure is more damaged, the analysts’ forecast of 54.5% growth requires patience as the recovery could take quarters, not weeks.
Watch $378 (SMA 200) as critical support, and a bounce to $405–$420 is possible from extreme oversold, but trust it only on strong volume and a confirmed weekly close above $408 (EMA 10).
