⏱️ 2.5Mins Read
The US-Iran talks that started this weekend in Islamabad are in sharp focus, with President Trump signaling progress at what he described as the “ropeline,” turning global commodity markets positive after a sharp drawdown.
Brent Crude: The Geopolitical Discount
Brent crude prices have plunged by roughly 12%, marking a steep decline since 2020, while gold has begun to recover from a sharp 21% drawdown. Copper has extended a three-week winning streak, and Silver also outperformed this week.
After skyrocketing from $61 in January to $117 in early March, Brent oil, currently trading at $96, is now driving back to its strong support level from $90 to $87. A confirmed breakthrough after US-Iran talks could push it to $80.
The technical analysis shows that Brent price, which convincingly completed a break of structure, collapsed its five-week bullish progress this week.
On the indicator scorecard, only market-structure shift and the EMA 200 still flash green for bulls, while RSI, VWAP, MACD, and Volume read bearish or neutral.
Copper: The Contested Middle Ground
Copper is trading high near $5.83/lb following three consecutive weeks of gains. In recovering from the early March panic sell-off, the price may test the $5.25 support level before reaching a resistance level between $5.88 and $6.
The copper chart shows a change of character after the March low, with price building an accumulation structure. However, the broader pattern from February still shows a lower-high formation, and the bear MSS/BOS flag remains active. MACD and EMA 200 are the only indicators showing the bull trend, giving copper the modest encouragement but not triggering a signal.
Fundamentally, the picture is mixed. News of copper rising on cease-fire developments competes with Goldman Sachs cutting its 2026 price forecast to $12,650 a ton from $12,850 on softer demand expectations. A clean break and weekly close above $5.88–$6.00 would flip the structure and open a path toward the February highs. Failure here risks a retest of the $5.50 area. Watch China demand data closely.
Gold: A Tactical Bounce
Gold is recovering from a sharp April drawdown that dragged it from above $5,600 to a low near $4,400, depicting a fall of roughly 21%. Now, the price has bounced back to $4,731 and is currently consolidating near a support level just below $4,800.
The gold recovery remains trapped in a bearish structure after a clear higher-high back in February, showing the subsequent sequence of lower highs is still intact. The bear side holds two confirmed indicators (MSS/BOS and 4H confirmation), while bulls can only point to MACD and EMA 200. The system rightly withholds a signal in this contested middle ground.
The longer-term gold narrative, however, remains compelling. Physical gold has notched three straight weekly gains, supported by speculation of a rising US rate-cut 2.1% in the upcoming Fed meeting to be held on April 29, 2026, tracked by CME FedWatch and its traditional safe-haven appeal during geopolitical uncertainty.
The bounce looks tactical rather than structural for now. If the rate-cut expectations firm further and US-Iran tensions ease gradually, gold could benefit from a soft-landing macro narrative.
Silver: The Quiet Outperformer
Silver is the quiet outperformer of this week’s commodity market. Trading around $75.79/oz, it carries the strongest bull scorecard of any asset in this review. MSS/BOS, MACD, Volume, and EMA 200, all aligned in favor of buyers.
The current price sits in a constructive range, and volume backing the recovery adds conviction.
On the fundamental side, silver is being pushed by the dual narrative of rate-cut optimism, which boosts its monetary store-of-value appeal and ongoing US-Iran diplomacy. This may reduce the geopolitical risk premium but increase industrial demand expectations if a deal stabilizes the Middle East. The silver rose to $75.6 on rate-cut hopes, reflecting genuine physical engagement in the market.
Silver was the most technically constructive commodity last week. If a signal triggers RSI or VWAP confirmation, silver could reach $80–$84 after breaking the $77.4 resistance level.
Geopolitical Crisis Ignites Bromine Shortage, Threatening to Freeze Global Electronics
The Week Ahead
The ongoing US-Iran talks in Islamabad will likely be decisive for crude’s near-term direction. For metals, the next Federal Reserve communication and any shift in rate expectations will matter most.
