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All global markets reacted sharply to the news reports related to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East over the past week.
📌 Executive Brief
- The Big Picture: Global markets are being whipsawed by US-Iran geopolitical tensions, swinging between gains and losses on every headline. The key catalyst to watch is a confirmed ceasefire — once that happens, expect a sharp, broad-based recovery across tech and energy.
Global Markets Analysis
The news of possible negotiations between Iran and the US turned all global markets green, but later turned red again after reports suggesting uncertainty still prevails about these possible negotiations.
This trend shows the markets are extremely sensitive to each headline on regional instability; hence, the moment a ceasefire between the US and Iran is confirmed, the scrips, especially in tech and energy, will show a sharp recovery.
Nasdaq has confirmed a correction while S&P fell in consecutive sessions, following the news of the Pentagon deploying troops to the Middle East and the Fed inflation upside risk.
S&P 500 (SPX)
The S&P 500 (SPX) is currently trading at $6,477, declining by 7 percent from $6,970, a recent all-time high (ATH).
The chart shows $6,544 as a premium zone, while a strong support level sits at $5,000.
S&P 500 Sector Analysis — Long Term (6–18 months)
The long-term S&P 500 sector analysis showed the bull structure is intact after the confirmation of BOS and rising trend on EMA 200, indicating secular AI and energy supercycles.
S&P 500 Sector Analysis — Medium Term (4–12 weeks)
In the medium term, S&P 500 sector analysis remains neutral with no correction confirmation.
S&P 500 Sector Analysis — Short Term (1–3 weeks)
However, the short-term analysis indicates a bearish trend following geopolitical tensions.
The 2022 Analogy
The 2026 YTD (−5.56%) trajectory is almost identical to the 2022’s early trajectory. In 2022, the S&P plummeted by 19.95% for the full year amid an oil/inflation shock, following the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, this pattern indicated more downward movement in the ongoing year but as the geopolitical crisis settles, the recovery will be sharp and fast.
For long-term traders, Nvidia and Micron are genuinely interesting signals.
What Apple, NVIDIA, and Microsoft Charts Are Telling Investors Right Now
Nikkei 225
The Nikkei 225 has been in a secular bull market since the Change of Character (CHoCH) in early 2020, rallying from ¥16,000 to an all-time high near ¥60,000 — a near 4x move in 6 years. That is an extraordinarily powerful structural trend.
However, the index is now in a meaningful correction phase, having shed roughly ¥7,000–8,000 from its peak.
Nikkei 225 Sector Analysis — Long term (6–18 months)
In long-term analysis, Nikkei 225 shows a structural bull trend is intact, following BOS confirmation and a steep rise in the 200 MA.
Nikkei 225 Sector Analysis — Medium Term (4–12 weeks)
In Medium Term analysis, momentum selling continues with the price remaining below EMA10/SMA10 and MACD.
Nikkei 225 Sector Analysis — Short Term (1–3 weeks)
The short-term analysis confirmed the news-driven bearish trend.
Nikkei 225 is in a structurally perfect bull market but running into a perfect storm of short-term headwinds — an oil shock, a Wall Street correction, and geopolitical risk all arriving simultaneously. The index is not broken; it’s pausing. The one wildcard that could flip everything fast is the Iran ceasefire.
FTSE 100 (UKX)
The US-Iran situation is driving the FTSE 100, sitting at 9,919 after rejecting from a “Weak High” near 11,000 in early 2026.
The index has now pulled back into the equilibrium band, and the strategy score of 1/5 for both bull and bear confirms the market doesn’t know which way it wants to go. This is a wait-and-see environment.
FTSE 100 Sector Analysis — Long term (6–18 months)
The long-term uptrend is unbroken, and EMA200 is at 8,451, just below the current price. Any dip to 8,891–9,047 (100-day MA) is a strong buy zone.
FTSE 100 Sector Analysis — Medium Term (4–12 weeks)
If an Iran peace deal materializes, risk-on rotation. Miners and Banks were top gainers on the 1.4% peace-hope rally.
FTSE 100 Sector Analysis — Short Term (1–3 weeks)
The short-term MAs (EMA10 at 10,200, SMA20 at 10,078) are all overhead resistance — the bears own the near-term tape.
The FTSE 100 is in a technically neutral, fundamentally uncertain zone. However, short-term momentum is bearish, while the long-term uptrend remains intact, indicating healthy consolidation after a 20%+ bull run in 2025.
